Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts

Friday, 5 April 2013

5,000 IN TWENTY DAYS

by Colin Bloom

My Blog is less nearly 20 days old, and has just ratcheted up its 5000th visitor. Thank you for looking, please keep the comments coming in.

The most read piece was:

THE PRIME MINISTER'S EASTER MESSAGE 2013


The second most read was:

ANTIDISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM


The third most read was:

CHRISTIAN CONSERVATIVES CAN BE PROUD OF THIS COALITION'S RECORD BUT A LOT MORE STILL NEEDS TO BE DONE


70% of you are from the United Kingdom, 25% from the United States and 5% from everywhere else.

Wednesday, 3 April 2013

I'M A DOUBLE DIP DENIER


by Colin Bloom (with help)

Forget triple dip, personally I'm sceptical if we ever even had a double dip!  Lies, damn lies and Orwellian politicians you all scream, the statistics say otherwise!  But do they?

Anyone who is a keen runner, will tell you that having a 'running mate', in the physical exercise sense, is better than running alone. Most runners find the co-dependancy of forcing each other to go that bit further or that bit faster is almost as good as having a dose of whatever Lance Armstrong kept in his medicine cabinet. The other advantage of a running mate is that you have hours with someone to stress test ideas with whilst you stress test your already exhausted knees and feet.
My running partner is Mr Taylor, a man who unlike me has a brain the size of Belgium and a much stronger grasp of all things economic. If the ball should ever come loose out the back of the scrum, and I should ever find myself as Prime Minister; it would be Mr Taylor who would be my Chancellor.

Last night we were well into our third mile when we agreed that far from believing there will be a 'triple dip', there was every chance that the 'double dip' never happened after all! You see Gross Domestic Product (GDP) “statistics” are like Liberal Democrats, they are unusual; you read them and believe them but for months and even years after they’re published, they can be changed. Here’s what the Office for National Statistics ONS have said about GDP recently.

I. The ONS calculated their “preliminary estimate” of the GDP for Q4 2011 as a -0.2% fall and published this in January 2012.

II. The following quarter, the ONS calculated their “preliminary estimate” of GDP for Q1 2012 as a -0.2% fall thus technically completing the definition of a recession as two quarters of declining GDP. At the same time they also announced that they had “revised” their previous estimate of the Q4 2011 GDP as -0.3%.

III. In July 2012, the ONS published their preliminary estimate of GDP for the next quarter, Q2 2012. This was the big one as GDP was estimated to have fallen significantly in that quarter with a published change of -0.7%, this also completed three successive quarters of GDP decline and seems to put the nail in the coffin of George Osborne’s fiscal rectitude.  At the same time though both of the previous 'quarters' “estimates”' were revised, Q4 2011 was revised downwards to -0.4% and Q1 2012 was also revised downwards to -0.3%.

Now at the time there was significant commentary from various esteemed economists who didn’t believe these figures (other than that David Blanchflower fella who screamed schadenfreude); the general consensus was that the economy was growing marginally and was flat at worst.  But the point to note is that those statistics keep changing and so the intelligent question to ask is where are they now?

IV. The latest GDP figures were published last week, they can be read here (table A2 on page 45, Chained Volume Measures). The BBC provided a helpful commentary and chart on them which can be found here.

There are two key points to note:

I. The latest revision of the GDP figures has them as:

Q4 2011:               -0.1%
Q1 2012:               -0.1%
Q2 2012:               -0.4%

II. These figures were revised versus the previous publication three months earlier which showed:

Q4 2011:               -0.3%
Q1 2012:               -0.2%
Q2 2012:               -0.4%

So all that is needed for George Osborne’s “double dip recession” to be erased from history is for one number to change. If Q1 2012 is revised to 0% then bingo - no double dip.

That isn't to say all things in the economic race track are going as fast as want, but like Mr Taylor and I, we're headed in the right direction.

Obvious credit to some of the technical data here goes to Mr. Taylor.

Saturday, 30 March 2013

MORE THAN 2500 IN TWO WEEKS


In less than two weeks - this blog has just had its 2,500th visitation. Not sure how that compares with other two week old blogs, but I'm enjoying it whilst it lasts.

Over the next few weeks, I will be introducing some guest writers, which is going to be great. I might also play around with the way the site looks.

In the meantime, please keep the comments coming in, and I will try and keep up the pace...

Happy Easter by the way.

Saturday, 23 March 2013

ONE WEEK OLD

by Colin Bloom

My baby blog is exactly one week old and I've made a few minor tweaks to it.

Gone is the name MUSINGS - COLIN BLOOM, replaced by BRITAIN IN BLOOM. I toyed with BLOOM'S BRITAIN and BLOOMING BRITAIN but they didn't float my dinghy.

After one week, this blog has had nearly 1,200 visits - I have no idea if that is a good number or not.

Thank you to everyone who has followed the site. As you can probably tell, I could do with tips and advice, please keep it coming.


Friday, 22 March 2013

ONE THOUSAND HITS

by Colin Bloom

After six months of thinking about it, I've been blogging for just under six days and have just passed 1000 hits. 

Not sure if that is good or bad, but it is a milestone of sorts.

75% from the UK, 20% from the US and 5% from everywhere else.

The most popular article was Wilberforce in Bronze - my plan to get a bust of William Wilberforce into Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ). No doubt the popularity of this article was in part because ConHome and Tim Montgomerie gave the article what they call 'tweet love'!

The next three articles are all jockeying for second position. Please shut up and listen - my view on PMQ's; Stretch Armstrong - a glimpse at the pressures in my world; and Wilberforce was no Liberal Democrat - my disdain for the attempted misappropriation of William Wilberforce by some Liberal Democrats.

I'm learning as I go, so please keep supporting the blog, I think you can join it, and please do leave comments. I would like to stimulate discussion!

Sunday, 17 March 2013

TWENTY FOUR HOURS

by Colin Bloom

I've been blogging for nearly 24 hours. The statistics are as follows:

Total views 335

From UK 267
From US 53
From Europe 6
Elsewhere 9

Feels like a decent start to my blogging career - but I have nothing to compare it to.
Thank you to everyone who has taken a peek.